最近就業市場之負面消息接連不斷, 讓很多人都擔心自己
之工作不保,因此在此精選出一篇國外之IC市場預測報告
文章,一起期待陰天的天氣趕快過去 .....

                                               IC market gloom won't last

                                             別擔心,陰雨的天氣總會過去…

 

 

 

Bill McClean

(12/18/2008 9:23 H EST)

 

 

Tired of all the gloom-and-doom annual forecasts for the worldwide economy and IC industry? It's true that, when viewed on an annual basis, the 2009 worldwide economy will be classified as a global recession and the 2009 IC industry will register negative growth.

 

對那些有關全球經濟與IC產業的悲觀年度預測感到厭倦了嗎?但展望2009年,全球經濟景氣確實將走向衰退,同時期的IC產業也將面臨負成長…

 

 

However, when viewed on a quarterly basis, a 'bottom' period and a 'recovery' period are highly likely to be encountered within the next 9 months. So, before we all go looking for tall buildings to jump off of, let's step back, take a deep breath, and look at some very powerful and positive forces that will be at work in 2009.

 

These include :

 

不過若以季節狀況來看,景氣從觸底到復甦的時間間隔應該不會超過九個月;因此在你想找地方跳樓之前先等等、做個深呼吸,讓我們一起來看看,2009年仍有不少正面且樂觀的力量;

 

它們包括:

 

 

1. Stimulus packages

 

China has announced a $586 billion economic stimulus program to take place throughout 2009 and 2010, the Euro-zone recently announced a $256 billion stimulus package, the United Kingdom could have a $45 billion package itself, and the United States is expected to announce up to an $850 billion stimulus package in late January or early February of next year.

 

1.      各國的經濟振興政策

 

中國已經宣佈將在20092010年執行規模達5,860億美元的經濟振興方案;歐盟也將斥資2,560億美元拉抬景氣。此外英國的振興方案將投資450億美元,美國也可望在091月或2月初宣佈8,500億美元的經濟振興計畫。

 

 

There is little doubt that, in total, worldwide stimulus packages, including from Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, Australia, Brazil, etc., will likely approach $2 trillion over the next two years. This is powerful medicine for a sick economy.

 

此外台灣、新加坡、日本、澳洲與巴西等地,也將在接下來的兩年祭出總額達2兆美元的經濟振興方案,這些都是有助於刺激低迷景氣的良藥。

 

2. Lower interest rates

 

U.S. interest rates are at an historic low (now zero percent to 0.25 percent) and are expected to remain at these levels for some time. Moreover, the rest of the world is also moving to significantly lower interest rates.

 

2.降低利息

 

美國的貸款利息已經降到歷史低點(0%~0.25%),並可能維持這樣的低水準好一段時間。除了美國之外,世界其他地區也可能會跟進降息。

 

 

In addition to record low interest rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve is initiating a massive purchase program for mortgage-backed securities. Already, 30-year fixed loans have dropped below 5 percent. Many economists now expect 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the United States to drop to as low as 3.5 percent over the next six months.

This could easily cause the biggest surge in refinancing of mortgages the United States has ever seen and will surely have a major positive impact on the U.S. housing market in the second half of 2009.

 

除了大幅降息,美國聯邦儲備理事會(U.S. Federal Reserve)正開始準備大舉收購抵押擔保證券(mortgage-backed securities);還有為期30年、低於5%的固定利率貸款也已就緒。許多經濟學家都預期,30年期的固定利率抵押利息將在接下來的六個月降到3.5%。這可能在2009下半年對美國房市產生正面影響。

 

 

3. Falling oil prices

 

A strong positive factor for the worldwide economy heading into 2009 is the relatively low price of oil. As of this writing, the price per barrel of oil was about $40, down from $147 per barrel in July of this year.

As a result, U.S. gasoline prices averaged only $1.65 in early December after reaching a high of $4.11 this past summer. This is an extremely important factor for the future of the worldwide economy since for every one cent of decline in gasoline prices, an annualized savings of $1 billion is realized!

 

3.下跌的原油價格

 

另一個有助拉抬2009年全球經濟景氣的因素,是原油價格下滑。在筆者截稿前,每桶原油價格已由20087月份的147美元降到40美元;這使得美國零售市場的油價,由夏天時最高一加侖4.11美元,降到12月初的1.65美元,這對全球經濟的重要性在於,一年可省下10億美元。

 

Having the exact opposite effect of rising oil prices, low oil prices have historically set the stage for a rebound in the worldwide economy.

With the average price per barrel of oil expected to decline by over 30 percent in 2009 as compared to 2008, the price of oil will transition from being a 'headwind' on the fortunes of the 2008 worldwide economy to a 'tailwind' next year.

 

以歷史角度來看,低油價對世界經濟的復甦將有正面助益。預期在2009年每桶原油價格將再比08年下跌30%,並讓景氣由逆轉順。

 

 

The abrupt decline in chip sales in the fourth quarter has many people comparing the current situation with the 2001 IC market.

 

While the recent swift change from a positive to a negative direction is similar to 2001, IC Insights believes that there are some significant differences.

 

至於IC市場,第四季陡峭下滑的晶片銷售額讓許多人聯想到2001年該市場的大蕭條;不過雖然眼前的情況與2001年類似,IC Insights認為兩次景氣低迷期仍有許多不同之處。

 

 

In 2001, the IC industry encountered the perfect storm of four negative influences, including a huge inventory build, excess capacity, a global recession and a severe decline in electronic system sales.

 

首先,在2001年,IC產業面臨四重負面影響,包括龐大的庫存、過剩的產能、全球景氣衰退以及電子系統產品銷售的嚴重下滑。

 

 

For 2009, IC Insights believes the IC industry is facing one of these same factors and a portion of another. In 2009, the IC industry will face a global recession and a decline in electronic system sales, but the decline in system sales next year is expected to be a single-digit decline as compared to a steep 14 percent decline in 2001.

 

不過在2009年,IC Insights認為IC產業雖也面臨全球景氣衰退、電子系統產品銷售下滑的情況,但與2001年達14%的幅度相較,下滑幅度大概只會有個位數字。

 

 

Also, there have been some comparisons made recently that the excess semiconductor inventory expected in the fourth quarter would begin to approach the excess inventory level of the first quarter of 2001.

 

However, it should be remembered that the semiconductor industry was at a $150 billion run rate in 2001. Thus, it would take a lot longer to burn off a similar amount of inventory in 2001 than in today's $250 billion industry.

 

 

而雖然有人指出,全球半導體過剩庫存水準,將在第四季達到與2001年第一季相同的水準,但別忘了,2001年的半導體產業規模大約僅有1,500億美元,當時的市場胃納量與目前達2,500億美元規模的情況相較,無法同日而語。

 

 

Moreover, in 2001, there were 945 million cell phone subscribers compared with 4 billion today. The semiconductor and electronics industries are much bigger and broad-based today than they were 8 years ago.

 

With all of the comparisons between the worldwide economic recession of 2001 and the downturn in 2009, one key difference will be the positive economic force of China in this downturn that was not present in 2001.

 

此外,在2001年,全球手機用戶為9.45億,現在則是有40億;經過了八年的時間,半導體與電子產業的規模已經擴大很多。還有,2001年與2009年最大的不同,是當時新興經濟體中國還沒冒出頭。

 

 

In addition to the economic stimulus that China will inject into the worldwide economy next year, the country has recently implemented a program to subsidize the purchase of cell phones and flat screen TVs -- remember, China has the world's largest base of cellphone subscribers).

 

除了其經濟振興政策可望在明年貢獻全球經濟,中國最近還打算推出鼓勵民眾購買手機與平面電視的補貼計畫──請注意,目前中國是全球擁有最多手機用戶的市場。

 

 

We are sure most people have seen the dour forecasts for the 2009 IC market from various market research firms—predictions that currently range from a decline of 6 to 16 percent.

 

The gloomiest forecast, an annual decline of 16 percent, sounds very bad. However, if you examine this forecast on a quarterly basis, you would likely see a very different picture.

 

相信大家都已經看到來自不同市場研究機構的、對2009IC市場的灰色預測數據,預期產業下滑幅度在6~16%之間。16%的下滑幅度真是怵目驚心,但如果你用每個季的角度來看,會有完全不同的收穫。

 

 

If first quarter 2009 registered a 7 percent sequential IC market decline, followed by a 2 percent drop in second quarter 2009, a 15 percent increase in the third quarter, and a 5 percent increase in the final quarter, a year-over-year decline of 16 percent would result.

 

2009年第一季,IC市場預期將下滑7%,第二季則下滑2%;不過到了第三季,將有15%的成長,第四季也將成長5%

 

Thus, even when examining a gloomy full-year forecast for a 16 percent sales decline for the 2009 IC market, one could still expect to see significant quarterly growth beginning in the third quarter.

 

In fact, the market could register a 17 percent sequential sales increase in the second half of 2009 over the first half of the year.

 

儘管整個年度的產業下滑幅度有可能是16%,但可預期的是我們在第三季就能嗅到IC市場的顯著復甦氣氛;我們預測2009下半年的IC市場銷售可較上半年成長17%

 

Overall, the economic issues facing the world at this point are unprecedented and massive. However, the worldwide response, thus far, is also unprecedented and massive. While nobody knows what the future will hold, it is a safe bet that things will not be stagnant.

 

整體看來,目前的全球經濟前景仍然籠罩著厚重的陰霾;雖沒有人知道未來會怎樣,但所有的事情並不會停滯不前。

 

A number of new programs, laws, stimulus packages, tax-breaks, and incentives are likely to be enacted worldwide throughout next year. There is little doubt that the next two quarters will be very challenging for businesses worldwide.

 

However, the worldwide economy in the second half of 2009 is also likely to begin showing some traction from the economic programs that are currently in place or in the pipeline, and a recovery from the recessionary gloom that is now so pervasive will begin.

 

前面所提的哪些新的經濟振興計畫、減稅與其他鼓勵政策,都有可能在2009年陸續出爐,也許接下來的兩個季對全球產業界來說確實會是挑戰,但相信到2009下半年,就可看到景氣復甦的跡象。

 

 

 

Given the typical seasonal strength in the electronics industry in the second half of the year, pent-up demand for electronics during the worst part of the global recession from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009 and a recovering worldwide economy, the second half 2009 IC market could surprise on the upside.

 

通常電子產業在下半年就會顯現季節性力道,而從2008年第三季到2009年第二季,最壞的情況應該已經過去,隨著被壓抑已久的市場需求因全球景氣的逐漸回溫而再度活絡,2009下半年的IC市場可能將出現令人意外的正面表現。

 

 

The best holiday gift we can offer you is expectation for a better business environment next year.

 

If you consider the worldwide economy and IC market on a quarterly basis instead of annual one, you can begin to form a positive outlook about the "other side" of this downturn, in the second half of 2009 and beyond.

 

 

 

這是我們所能給你的最好新年禮物,也就是對一個更好的2009年的期待;如果你能從季節而非年度的觀點來看IC市場與全球景氣,你就能用一種正面的心態來面對眼前的低迷。陰雨天總會過去的…讓我們等待陽光在2009下半年之後重現吧!

 

 

 

Bill McClean is president of market research firm IC Insights Inc.

 

(參考原文: Analysis: IC market gloom won't lastby Bill McClean,本文作者為市場研究機構IC Insights總裁)

 

 

 

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